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  • 09May

    Wednesday, April 28, 2010
    Neighbor News (Denville Edition)

    Dear Editor,

    Generally I am not a fan of editorials but I am seeing so much incorrect information being printed, I felt obligated to send you a note. With the current New Jersey credit crisis, everyone is looking to point the finger at another group and saying that they should pay for all of this. Here are a few points to consider.

    Budget — as a financial planner I know one thing for sure. You have to live below your means if you want to be successful long term. This is the same for a family, a company and a government. We no longer have the means (nor should we if we could) to push back expenses or not count them in our financial statements (i.e. pension liabilities). If a town has X amount in revenues, its budget must be less then X and only in poor areas should they be getting state aid

    Schools — We have a great school system in town and I love my boys’ teachers who work very hard in helping our kids. I have no issue with what we pay them. I do have an issue with a $600K medical insurance increase that we got hit with last year and due to the union contract, we had to suck up the entire cost on a plan that is no longer reasonable based upon what all of us have.

    We could not make changes in plan designs, change carriers or have the employees pay part of the cost. That is not acceptable and the end result is that now teachers are getting laid off. So the union that is supposed to be protecting workers and their jobs, is more concerned about maintaining the status quo with benefits then actually saving teachers jobs. That is simply insane!

    The Wealthy — everyone is saying that the wealthy should pay more because they have more. Reality check … they are. According to the most recent IRS data available (2007), the top one percent of filers paid 40.4 percent of the total U.S. income taxes. The highest 5 percent paid 60.6 percent of the total tax income tax. The bottom 50 percent of all filers paid only 2.9 percent of the total tax. In addition, many of these people do not use additional services and in fact, many use less as their children may be in private schools. They pay higher property taxes, income taxes and sales taxes.

    They may also be business owners and most people do not realize that as a business owner, you are the last person paid and only if there is money left over. If tax increases are necessary, they should be across the board equally to everyone not just the people who are probably where they are because they worked harder or smarter then most.

    Pension plans — I think those in charge of the pension system in NJ should hung, drawn and quartered for not funding the plan for so many years. That is totally wrong. On the other side, I have no issue giving money to an employee for their retirement, but I have a huge issue with being responsible for the investment performance. We should give a “defined contribution” for someone’s retirement, and they should be given options with what they can do with it from private investment companies

    These options would include annuities that can give them a guaranteed retirement income where the taxpayer is not on the hook for investment risk.

    I, like everyone else, like low taxes and extraordinary services, but the reality is that we all have to live on a budget. I am an Independent as I feel that there are great people (as well as idiots) in both political parties who are often more concerned about shifting the blame than solving problems. What Christie is doing is correct and we all know that. We need to live within our means, evaluate what we are spending our money on and see where we can get more value.

    The new rule of NJ needs to be if it is stupid and does not provide long-term value, we get rid of it!

    Jerry Lynch

    Mountain Lakes

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  • 09May

    Jerry Lynch’s
    Quarterly Economic Update
    Wow—another roller coaster quarter! As you can see from the charts below, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a significant drop in January and then rebounded, ending up with another impressive quarter with a total return of 4.1%. This marks the Dow’s 4th consecutive quarterly gain and its best first-quarter performance since 1999. The S&P 500 index rose 4.9%, and the NASDAQ Composite index also had an impressive quarter, up 5.7%. (Source: WSJ, April 1, 2010)

    The stock market extended its rally, while many of the trends that helped the stock market stage a remarkable recovery in 2009 continued to provide a favorable environment for many U.S. stocks. For example, corporate earnings again came in stronger than expected for many companies as the battered U.S. economy continued to improve.

    The Dow Jones closed above 11,000 on Monday, April 12th, something it hasn’t achieved since the financial system started deteriorating 19 months ago. This rise was caused by optimism about corporate profits, a recovering economy and the latest debt release plan for Greece. (Source: WSJ, April 13, 2010)

    We just passed a major anniversary for the U.S. stock market. Just over a year ago the Dow hit bottom and has since rallied more than 70%. A big question is how much of the market’s rebound was driven by improving economic fundamentals and how much of the stock market increase was due to government stimulus.

    Unfortunately, as you can see from the chart, this rebound was not in the form of a straight line. The Dow endured various corrections during this period, including its pullback in January of this year. Although market corrections are scary, investors must accept that pullbacks are normal occurrences during every advance. Most sector, stock or investment styles are not immune to such events and it is simply one of the costs of business to anyone who owns stocks.

    There are many typical patterns related to economic cycles and recovering economies. This revival of our economy continues to play out very similar to past recoveries, with consumer spending leading the way, followed by industrial production and, much later, employment and capital spending. Consumer spending and industrial production have already began their upward rise, while employment and capital spending should begin, according to many economists, to grow again sometime during mid-2010. Usually, without some type of significant outside force, recovery very often begins to feed itself. This momentum is usually as hard to break on the upside as it is on the downside. The virtuous cycle starts with more spending that leads to more production… that leads to more factory hours worked and more employment… that results in increasing consumer income…that leads to increased spending, and so forth, as the cycle begins anew.

    Although both the Dow and the S&P are up about 5% so far this year, the market still looks poised to gain a lot more ground in 2010. The S&P 500 is trading at about 15 times the estimated 2010 profits. But that is not expensive, given today’s low bond yields.

    While the U.S. economy faces serious long-term headwinds, a cyclical recovery is underway and corporate profits are on the upswing, meaning dividends may start to make a comeback. (Source: Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, March 24, 2010)

    The yield on the S&P 500 is only 2.1% at the moment, but that figure is likely to grow as payout rates rise. Please note that over the 1925-2009 period reinvested dividends accounted for 43% of the total return in stocks. (Source: Forbes, March 29, 2010)

    One of the major providers of support for stocks is the solid state of many corporate balance sheets. Jason Desena, Shief Investment Strategist at Strategas Research Partners, insists that by several measures, there never has been more cash in corporate coffers. In the fourth quarter, undistributed corporate profits (essentially, the flow of cash that companies generate but don’t disperse) hit an all-time high of $527 billion. In addition, the non-financial companies in the S&P 500 have a record $830 billion of cash on their books, according to Strategas. There is evidence that some companies may start doling out some of that cash to shareholders through higher dividends, which is a positive trend for stocks. (Source: WSJ, April 1, 2010)

    Global Overview

    The global recovery has been driven by growth in China. Huge government stimulus funds taken at the height of the crisis have had a sizeable impact on China’s economic growth. China has also passed Germany as the #1 exporter in the world and is now the largest automobile maker, bypassing the United States at the end of 2009. (Source: American Funds)

    Chinese revitalization of Asian capitalism remains one of the most important positive events in the world in the last 30 years. Not only did it release a billion people from oppression, but it transformed a communist enemy of the United States into an indispensable capitalist partner. Unfortunately, instead of treating China like a crucial economic partner, the U.S. treats China as an adversary because it defies us on global warming, dollar devaluation and internet policy.

    In 2009, the U.S. economy shrank by 2.4% to $14.5 trillion in size, while China’s economy grew by 8.7% to $4.9 trillion in size. Some experts say it is a bubble and others believe that it will continue to grow at the same pace or better. (Source: Commerce Department)

    If we take a look at 2010, the U.S. economy is predicted to grow 2.7% and China’s economy is predicted to grow 10%. (Source: International Monetary Fund)

    Emerging Markets

    It has become an investing truism lately: If you want stocks with high-octane potential, you are wise to invest in the fast-growing economies of the emerging markets. The result has been frenzied demand for such stocks and sky-rocketing valuations. The MSCI Emerging Markets index has risen 76% in the last year and China’s main stock index now trades at a price/earnings ratio of 31, more than 50% higher than that of the S&P 500. Many investors find themselves in a quandary: Yes, new economies have a rich potential, but at these prices? Some international stock managers have found an answer—buying shares of companies in established economies that have significant exposure to emerging markets. Many larger companies are experiencing their fastest growth from places like China, Brazil, and India.

    Emerging markets could suffer reversals in coming months, but their long-term outlook is robust, according to many economists. Many emerging markets are exiting the global recession on stronger footing than many developed markets. If the global economy continues to recover, emerging market stocks and bonds could be top performers again.

    At the end of World War II, the United States emerged as an economic superpower, with widespread growth and consumption. More recently, many countries around the world have been undergoing a similar shift, with a growing middle class and rising standards of living. While the world economy and markets still face significant challenges, these trends suggest that there is significant opportunity in global markets for patient, long-term investors.

    For example, consider the following:

    • In 2009, for the first time, China passed the U.S. as the world’s largest car maker. First time buyers were responsible for at least 70% of car purchases in China (as of 2008).
    • Only 10 years ago, 1 out of 100 Russians had a cell phone account. Although not everyone has a cell phone account, since many people have more than one, Russia now boasts more cell phone accounts than people.
    • From 2003 to 2008, toothpaste usage in India increased roughly 40% per person. With more than 1 billion people in India, the total amount of toothpaste used in a year would fill 43 Olympic-size swimming pools!
    • Over the next decade, nearly 450 million newcomers are expected to join the middle class in China and India alone, according to the McKinsey Global Institute.
    (Source: American Funds)

    The story of long-term economic growth is not limited to countries outside the U.S. In fact, despite recent economic challenges, there are many reasons to believe that America’s future remains bright:

    • The U.S. remains the world’s largest single-country economy, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2008 of about $14 trillion a year; roughly 24% of the world’s total output.
    • 15 of the 20 largest public companies in the world are based in the U.S. (as of October 31, 2009).
    (Source: American Funds)
    • The U.S. has 4% of the world’s population, 24% of the GDP and about 35% of its net worth. (Source: Forbes, April 26, 2010)

    International investing involves special risks including greater economic and political instability, as well as currency fluctuation risks, which may be even greater in emerging markets.

    U.S. Budget Deficit

    This report is not meant to be political, and although some of President Obama’s proposals and ideas might appear to be on the extreme side, it is important to remember that much of the deficit is a natural result of a deep recession that he inherited. Please note that a new commission has just been launched to deal with the federal deficit and both parties are participating.

    The budget is the main arena in which the nation as a whole decides on the allocation of resources. What we spend money on – and what we don’t – reflects what we value as a nation. Making the best choice isn’t all that simple. It is in the federal budget that the breakdown of consensus is most vivid and most dangerous. One side of the political divide wants to cut taxes and shrink existing public services and the other side often wants to increase public spending on social and economic means – even as it remains unclear on how to fund the outlays. There is no absolute rule on when the deficits of public debts are too high relative to an economy’s size. As the economy grows, deficits fall and debts become more sustainable, lightening the deficit burden and reassuring investors.

    According to the latest projections by the Administration in presenting the budget for fiscal year 2011 (the 12 month period from October 1st, 2010 to September 30, 2011.), the U.S. debt has reached record highs for peace time. The deficit is now expected to reach $1.6 trillion, an outstanding 10.6% of GDP. (This is double the 5% incurred during Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal from 1933-1936.)

    Some of that reflects the downturn in the business cycle, which cuts into tax revenue while boosting unemployment compensation, bank bailouts and other spending. Yet there is nothing temporary about the enormous deficit. The Obama budget office projects mega deficits for years to come – as high as $752 billion, roughly 4% of GDP, in 2015 – despite some rosy economic and budgetary assumptions.

    Meanwhile, as the Treasury hurries to fill in the gap between revenue and outlays, the government debt is soaring. In fiscal year 2010, the Obama budget office projects the public debt will increase by $1.75 trillion. That amounts to roughly $15,000 per household. For 2015 the cumulative rise in the debt is projected to exceed $6 trillion. Remember – this doesn’t even include the budget problems facing most states, such as California, New York and New Jersey, which face multi-billion dollar deficits. (Source: Time Magazine, February 15, 2010)

    Shortly after he took office, the President signed into law a 2-year stimulus package worth about $787 billion, which the Administration estimated would save or create about 3.5 million jobs. With the stimulus, the White House predicted that unemployment would peak at about 8%. Instead unemployment rose to 10% in 2009. Although it has dropped slightly to 9.7%, it will stay at about this number for most of 2010, according to the Administration’s forecast.

    This unexpected bad performance has placed the President in an uncomfortable spot. Just when he ought to start switching his attention towards deficit reduction, he faces a labor market far weaker than was forecasted last January. Meanwhile economic weakness has further damaged the country’s fiscal position. (Source: The Economist, February 6, 2010)

    Another worry is that federal borrowing may crowd out private borrowing and drive interest rates significantly higher for mortgages, car loans, etc. Finally, many investors are concerned that the increased federal spending might ignite inflation and in turn drive interest rates higher which would lower our standard of living.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech in Dallas on Wednesday, April 7th and warned about the concerns he has about the deficit. Mr. Bernanke bluntly stated that two giant fiscal waves were headed for the federal government, one on top of the other. First comes the big deficit caused by the economic downturn, which will be followed immediately by the ballooning costs of baby-boomer retirees drawing Social Security and Medicare funds. He is worried that the huge U.S. budget deficit threatens the Nation’s long-term economic health and should be addressed soon. “To avoid large and unsustainable budget deficits, the nation will ultimately have to choose among higher taxes, modifications to entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, less spending on everything else from education to defense, or some combination of the above,” Mr. Bernanke said.

    To sum up Mr. Bernanke’s statement as simply as possible: There are 2 ways to reduce the deficit—cut spending or increase taxes. Many political battles during the next few years will pit taxpayers against the beneficiaries of public spending. Generations may also be pitted against each other, as our nation’s biggest medium-term budget busters are pensions and healthcare for retirees. These battles are also intertwined—taxpayers who do not work for the government finance public employee pensions which are, by and large, more generous and predictable than in the private sector. (Source: The Economist, March 6, 2010)

    To understand how hard it is to cut Federal spending, consider this: about three-fifths of our public spending (57.3%) goes out in direct payments to individual Americans or is spent on their personal behalf (for example, by healthcare and housing providers).

    The biggest area of discretionary spending is on military operations and hardware. At 19.6% of next year’s budget, defense is the third-largest federal expenditure by function after healthcare and pensions. Obama and Congress are eyeing major cuts in armament programs, but defense contractors will remind the voters of how many manufacturing jobs they support in most of the 50 states. In fact, getting rid of all defense spending would eliminate less than half of this year’s $1.6 trillion deficit. (Source: USA Today, March 17, 2010)

    What is left of discretionary spending is about every other function of the government: transportation, education, homeland security, law enforcement and disaster relief, just to name a few. The problem is that all of these together account for only about 16% of federal spending. In fact, not one of these functions gets even 3% of the budget and many are well under 1%. (Source: Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, April 20, 2010)

    Our tax revenues are adequate to cover just 4 budget items: military spending, health spending, Social Security, and interest on the national debt. Every other program has to be covered with borrowed funds. This includes unemployment compensation, homeland security, support for state and local governments – the list goes on and on.

    President Obama has proposed a number of different tax increases in order to help reduce this deficit. We will discuss different tax issues later in this report. Unfortunately, the projections for the tax increases in order to balance the budget are not easy to swallow.

    A January study by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center provides the worst case scenario. It found that to reduce the federal budget deficit to a sustainable 3% of GDP, the government would have to find an average of about half a trillion dollars each year in new revenue (or spending caps). That is roughly how much the federal government spends now on the giant Medicare program. To cover that amount through tax increases on the top 2 brackets – roughly families with more than $209,000 in taxable income – top rates would have to go from the current 33% and 35% to 72.4% and 76.8%, according to this study!

    Please see the chart to the left that illustrates how the factors would change depending on if it’s a rate across the board or just only to the top two tax rates, as the current proposal is today. (Source: WSJ, April 12, 2010)

    It appears as though some investors are not too concerned about these deficits. One theory is that these numbers are so high and the subject so complicated that it is difficult, if not impossible, for many investors to truly relate to what these numbers really mean! (Source: By the Numbers, February 1, 2010)

    Let’s take a look at how many zeros there are in a trillion dollars: $1,000,000,000,000,.

    When we hear the word “trillion” almost daily from the media—oh, a trillion here, a trillion there—it can make us immune to the actual importance and seriousness of this amount of money. Apply it to your personal life and you’ll come to the same conclusion everybody should, which is:

    A trillion dollars is a lot of MONEY!

    Let’s put this in perspective – the U.S. government paid $1 billion of interest expenses on its Treasury debt every 40 hours during the month of February 2010! (Source: Treasury Department)

    National Health Plan

    On March 23, 2010, President Obama signed a Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and H.R. 3590. The bill is massive – nearly $1 trillion in spending and $400 billion in new taxes over the next decade, not to mention coming in at over 2,000 pages! This is the biggest change in America’s welfare state since the 1960s and a major attempt to bring healthcare coverage to the country’s uninsured. This new law will extend coverage to 32 million uninsured by expanding Medicaid rules, establishing new health-insurance changes to provide more competitive rates, and providing subsidies for middle class families to buy into private plans.

    The cost of these health reforms – $940 billion over the next 10 years – paid for by measures that include reducing Medicare spending, levying a new tax on high-end “Cadillac” health plans and raising taxes on the wealthy. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the savings for all these changes will reduce the federal deficit by $130 billion by 2019. Republicans, who unanimously opposed the legislation, say that these predictions are woefully optimistic and will end up adding hundreds of billions of dollars in deficit spending.

    Unfortunately, most taxpayers do not realize that within this voluminous document is a special provision adding a “surtax” to high-income taxpayers. There were a number of different changes in these new tax laws that affect about everyone one way or another. Some of the new law’s provisions will take affect soon while other elements will phase in slowly, over the next few years. Health care reform is but one aspect of a larger trend: the government is becoming more involved in the economy and is exerting greater influence on our investment decisions.

    The tax implications of this healthcare legislation raise critical questions for investors looking to preserve their assets. A significant portion of the revenue raised by the act comes in the form of an additional Medicare tax hike that will affect higher-income taxpayers. For example, starting in 2013, there will be an additional 0.9% Medicare Health Tax (from the current 1.45% to 2.35%) on earned income above $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for joint filers. The bill also imposes a Medicare tax of 3.8% on investment income, such as dividends and interest, for individuals with Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) above $200,000 and joint filers with AGI $250,000 starting in 2013. Distribution from pensions, IRAs, 401(k)s, and other qualified retirement plans will be exempt.

    The President also hopes to raise $354 billion over 10 years from the same taxpayers by raising the top two tax rates to 36% and 39.6%, plus another $105 billion with the higher tax on dividends and capital gains, plus another $500 billion by capping and phasing out exemptions and deductions. Add it all up and the government is counting on squeezing an extra $1.2 trillion over 10 years from a small number of taxpayers who already pay more than half of all individual taxes.

    Tax Planning Strategies

    Let’s look at a tiny sliver of taxpayers for a minute—the top 1% of taxpayers. In 1980, they paid 19.1% of all federal income tax while the bottom 50% of taxpayers paid 7.1%. In 2007, they paid 40.4% of all federal income tax while the bottom 50% of taxpayers paid only 2.9%. Thus, since 1980 the top 1% of taxpayers has gone from paying nearly three times the federal income tax of the bottom 50% of taxpayers to nearly fourteen times as much! (Source: Tax Foundation)

    Projections from the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center show that 38% of Americans were expected to have zero or negative federal individual income tax liability in 2009 before the stimulus package was enacted. After the stimulus and other tax changes, this proportion will increase to nearly 46%! Today, according to the Tax Foundation, 50% of Americans consume more in government services than they pay in taxes. (Source: WSJ, April 14, 2010)

    The tax law changes from this health care plan is one of many different tax increases that will affect many taxpayers. For example, taxpayers at all income levels could be affected by new limits on medical flexible spending accounts and medical deductions. The 3.8% investment tax, combined with the expected expiration of the Bush tax cuts for high income taxpayers on January 1, 2011, would produce a top federal income tax rate of 23.8% on long-term capital gains from the sale of investments in 2013, up from 15% today. The top income tax rate on interest and other types of “passive” income would increase to 43.4% from 35% today.

    Dividend income is expected to be affected the most, and if Congress doesn’t act, the top income tax rate on dividends will zoom from 15% in 2010 up to 44.6% in 2013!

    There are too many tax law changes included in this national health plan to be included in this quarterly economic report. In addition, there is talk about additional taxes, including the possibility of a national sales tax, also known as a value-added tax, to help pay for any additional shortfalls. We will attempt to cover these details soon, along with tax reduction strategies, in a supplementary report.

    Social Security Changes

    With all the baby boomers retiring, a major concern for many taxpayers was how long it would take before Social Security would start paying out more to retirees than the money it took in from working employees. Well – you don’t have to wait any longer – it just happened! The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) did not expect this to happen until at least 2016. Unfortunately, payments have risen more than expected during the economic downturn because many jobs have disappeared and many people applied for benefits sooner than they had originally planned. In addition, its revenue fell sharply because of the high unemployment and fewer people working. The CBO stated that this would have no affect on benefits paid in 2010 and retirees would keep receiving their checks as usual.

    At least a bit of good news – according to their latest projections, the program will not exhaust its funds until about 2037. Let’s hope these projections are more accurate than the one above. (Source: NYT, March 24, 2010)

    Inflation vs. Deflation

    The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% in 2009, compared with only 0.1% in 2008. Gasoline prices, up more than 50% over 2009, drove the index higher. (Source: CNN/Money) At this time, the Federal Reserve believes the substantial slack in the economy makes inflation a distant prospect. Even if prices do rise, the Fed believes it can control this problem. Instead, they are worried about the opposite: that the already-low rate of inflation is slowing further. At the same time, at its last meeting on March 16th, the Federal Reserve left its short-term rate target between 0-0.25% for the tenth consecutive time, and, given “subdued inflation trends”, said it probably would leave it there for an “extended period”.

    Despite a surge in the cost of gasoline and other energy products, consumer prices rose just 0.2% in January. Perhaps more important, core consumer prices – which exclude volatile food and energy costs and which are considered indicative of underlying inflation trends – actually fell 0.1% during the month of January. This news excited investors and relieved some of the financial market’s fears that the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates soon to keep inflation in check. However, investors should curb their enthusiasm. Some analysts are now beginning to whisper the D-word – deflation. Deflation is a concern because of the unusual amount of unused labor and production yields pricing power and the ability to command higher wages.

    Deflation, according to some economists, is an even bigger potential problem than inflation. If widespread price declines were to take hold, they could be particularly debilitating for the economy. Faced with the prospect of depressed prices for products, many companies would be unlikely to expand operations or add workers. Falling prices also already give shell-shocked consumers yet another reason to hold on to their cash. Why buy something today that will cost less tomorrow? (Source: Bloomberg Business Week, March 8, 2010)

    Unemployment

    Unemployment today doesn’t look like any unemployment in the recent American experience. We have the astonishing new reality that the “long-term jobless” – people out of work more than 6 months – was about 44% of all people unemployed in February. A year ago that number was only 24.6%. Please see the chart to the left. (Source: WSJ, April 8, 2010)

    This means that nearly 1 of every 2 Americans who has lost his job is waiting at least a half a year to get a new one. The damage in lost skills and human capital is enormous and can do life-long damage.

    Unfortunately, there has not been a significant increase in new jobs during the current administration. The U.S. did add 150,000 jobs in March, the most in 3 years, but some of that was due to hiring temporary workers for the 2010 Census.

    Congress is extending jobless benefits, and in the first week of April, President Obama proposed a new subsidy for the jobless in the form of mortgage payment reductions if you are out of work. Even with this good news, there remains huge ground to make up.

    Real Estate

    Another key concern is that accommodation of an expiring housing credit, higher interest rates and more restrictions on FHA loans could stop the housing recovery. Some real estate experts are saying prices have now stabilized and are even, in some cases, rising from their lows of the recession. (Source: Morningstar Stock Investor, February 2010)

    It is difficult to determine the true course of where real estate is going and this varies depending on the specific geographic location and of course the unemployment rate, especially in your particular area.

    Interest Rates

    The biggest variables in the coming months are how and when the U.S. government will wean markets from the financial support it injected in the economy over the past year, and when the Federal Reserve might begin to push interest rates higher. The potential for interest rates to rise significantly is perhaps the biggest worry for holders of medium and longer-term bonds, because rising rates hurt the value of existing bonds. However, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, has stated that he intends to keep rates low for “an extended period.”

    There is now more than $9 trillion sitting on the sidelines in various low-yielding bank instruments. The average interest rate was less than 0.1% on Treasury Bills, as of April 9, 2010. (Source: Investment News, February 6, 2010) It isn’t logical that barely yielding bank accounts and certificates of deposit should continue to hold such overwhelming appeal. It is amazing how many people are willing to earn zero interest to protect their capital.

    The Bond Market

    Just like stocks, the bond market is also affected by the state of the economy. The interest rates on bonds are affected by the demand for loan-able funds. In an economic expansion, the demand for funds often causes interest rates to rise, increasing the cost of borrowing. During economic contractions, or a recession, the demand for loans is usually low and interest rates tend to decline.

    Interest rates can’t stay at historical lows forever and will eventually start getting higher. Some investors think it has already started, others feel that it will be between now and the end of the year, and still others believe it won’t be until 2011 until interest rates start increasing.

    Whenever interest rates do go up, what can investors expect?

    Although the bond market has historically been less volatile than the stock market, bonds also fluctuate in price, some significantly. When yields for new bonds fall, existing bonds with higher yields become more valuable and can demand a higher price. When yields for new bonds rise, the prices of existing bonds fall to compete with the increased demand for new bonds. If history serves as a guide (which is no guarantee), bond investors will suffer when interest rates start to move upward.

    Bond yields, especially long-term bond yields, are sensitive to inflation expectations because inflation can rule the value of a bond over a period of time. If inflation expectations are high, lenders require higher interest rates to lend funds for more than the short-term. If inflation expectations remain high, long-term interest rates may take longer to drop, even when the Fed is cutting rates. (Source: Morningstar)

    Unfortunately, if the inflation rate increases even slightly, it will probably be an interest rate shock that would affect most bonds, particularly when you realize that short-term interest rates are starting from zero. Such an increase would likely be in response to a stronger economy, rising bond yields and higher commodity prices.

    Americans usually say they are seeking safety and income. However, in the real world, what they crave is the illusion of safety, and all the income they can get their hands on! Historically, more money has been lost in the mindless quest for high yields than in all the stock market crashes since the dawn of time. (Source: Nick Murray Interactive, April 2010)

    Since the financial crisis began in 2007, investors have bought up government bonds as protection against the crumbling economy. Please remember that the historical average for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield is 7.31%, way above the current yield just shy of 3.90%. According to Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors, there is a tremendous amount of latent inflation built into the pipeline. There is no reason that interest rates should be half their historical value. “Everybody now believes that the economic crisis has ended. Inflation has to be headed higher all the time. I have been swamped by a tsunami of treasury auctions. Where are all the buyers going to come from?” (Source: Yahoo Finance)

    While interest-rate risk worries many investors, other factors also affect bond performance:

    • Rising inflation erodes the value of a Bond’s principal and interest payments, influencing investor demand.
    • Credit risk affects the chance that a company might not make principal or interest payments on its debt.

    The Federal Reserve increased the so-called “discount rate”, the rate that the Fed charges member banks to borrow from the Fed itself, rather than from other member banks, from 0.5% to 0.75% during February 2010. Although the Fed did not signal a near-term increase in short-term interest rates, it appears that the Federal Reserve was laying the ground work for interest rate hikes – maybe even later this year.

    The sudden drop-off in investor demand for U.S. Treasury notes during the week of March 26th is raising questions about whether interest rates will finally start increasing which would impact the government’s borrowing costs, spelling trouble for the fragile housing market. In fact, during the last week of March, mortgage rates have also picked up. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 5.13%. (Source: WSJ, March 26, 2010)

    Is It Good News or Bad News?

    One of the hardest, most useful lessons every investor must learn is that there is no such thing as “good” or “bad” news. A significant amount of economic data comes out each week and often the information can be interpreted in either a positive or negative way. The same piece of news can be good for a stock one week and prompt a major selloff the next. This doesn’t mean that news is useless; rather, what is really important is how the market reacts to news. Please refer to the table below which lists a few recent important announcements and how this information could be interpreted as positive or negative; talk about differences!

    Data Item/ Report

    Positive View

    Negative View
    FOMC Committee holds short-term rates unchanged at 0.00% to 0.25% Keeping rates low helps to strengthen the banking system, stimulate overall economic activity, and stabilize the housing sector Low rates are a recognition that economic growth is weak and unemployment is high; risk-averse savers are earning next to nothing on money-market investments
    Consumer Price Index (CPI) is unchanged in February; low for past year Inflation isn’t a worry – benefitting consumers and the bond market Low inflation is due to high unemployment, weak consumer spending, and low energy prices
    New housing starts dropped to an annual rate of 575,000 in February from 611,000 in January Almost all of the decline was in multifamily homes; single family homes were almost equal to last month Housing starts were up over where they were in February of 2009; the decline was more a function of bad weather conditions in many areas
    The nation’s trade deficit increased by +12.9% for 4Q 2009 Global trade is recovering from the Great Recession; consumers are starting to spend more, including more foreign goods Our indebtedness to foreigners is increasing while our manufacturing continues to wither away

    It is difficult to accurately predict what is going to happen next, but it appears that many investors are nervous about not only the current state of our economy, but where we are headed in the near future as well. This added nervousness and an investor’s mood at any particular time may affect their reactions to new information. Therefore, it is important to remember a couple of the general rules of investing:

     Psychological reasons usually outweigh economic reasons!

     The dominant determinant of real-life, long-term investment outcomes is not investment performance; it is investor behavior.

    There have been countless articles recently that suggest the stock market is ready for a major upturn and now is the time to invest, while many others predict that the Dow is headed back to the 6,000 range and now is the time to get out! Who is right? No one knows for sure—the markets seem jittery and susceptible to change for about any reason.

    There are no easy solutions to the long-standing issues and problems within our economy. Don’t expect the markets to ignore these problems. They won’t. Until the markets get a real sense that we are making progress on a lot of these fronts, investment returns are likely to be volatile and unpredictable.

    So what should you do? Remember the next three rules of investing, which are:

     Diversify
     Diversify
     Diversify

    Your portfolio should be invested within different asset classes, and the allocations should be based upon your particular goals, needs, and objectives.

    Please remember – there is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio in any given market environment.

    Preventing the Next Financial Crisis
    Note: The information in this section was compiled from a number of different books that are listed in the sources at the end of this report.

    Policymakers want to do whatever is necessary to ensure that something like this never happens again. Unfortunately, many people make the same mistakes because they do not identify the real cause of a particular problem. It is important that we properly assess the real reasons behind the Great Recession. Therefore, I would like give a brief summary of this fiasco.

    It appears that the Great Recession was the byproduct of three government-created “debacles”.

    The first was our monetary policy. The housing bubble would not have reached its immense size without the Federal Reserve’s low-interest-rate, “easy money” policy of the early 2000s. This affected not only housing, but the entire economy.

    The second debacle: Government-created mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae helped inflate the real estate balloon even further. Fannie and Freddie dominated the sub-prime market; by 2008, Freddie and Fannie boxed, packed and guaranteed more than $1 trillion worth of less-than-prime Mortgage Brokerage Securities (MBSs), selling these securities to investors. The securities were rated AAA by rating agencies, even though the investments were sub-prime!

    The third government disaster was a succession of regulatory failures. The worst by far was the new “mark-to-market” or “fair value” accounting rules which became effective during the third quarter of 2007 and destroyed the net worth of many banks and insurance companies overnight. Mark-to-market accounting required financial companies to write down the value of their investments to what they would command on the open market, with the losses appearing on the companies’ profit-and-loss statements.

    One fundamental problem is that not all assets on a balance sheet are necessarily saleable at any given moment. For example, if you estimated the value of your home based on what you could get if you had to sell it today, the amount might be very low—well below the amount you might get if you listed it with a realtor. Similarly, when the sub-prime mortgages began defaulting in 2008, the market for MBSs dried up. Yet, rigid mark-to-market accounting rules forced the drastic reduction in the value of MBSs, even when investors were both willing and able to hold them until the market improved or until they matured.

    Even the prices of bonds that were still paying in full and on time fell by 60% or 70%, and those losses were reflected on the income statement. This in turn wiped out regulatory capital, caused bankruptcies and created a vicious downward spiral in the economy. Of the $600 billion the financial institutions wrote off between the summer of 2007 and the fall of 2008, almost all were book losses and not actual cash losses. In retrospect, it is clear that this new mark-to-market accounting rule was a major force behind the panic of 2008. (Source: First Trust Economic Commentary, March 31, 2010)

    When the financial companies drastically wrote down the value of their mortgage portfolios, many of these banks and insurance companies had to raise more capital, sending distress signals to the market that forced down their stock prices even further. Unfortunately, many hedge funds saw this scenario and started shorting financial stocks. The frenzy of short selling sent many financial stocks into a spiral. Many companies had their credit downgraded by agencies almost overnight.

    The significant increase in short selling was due to repeal of the “uptick rule” in July 2007. The uptick rule was enacted back in 1938 to stop this practice that devastated many companies in the 1920s and 1930s. Someone would pick a stock, spread rumors that it was in trouble, then sell it short relentlessly, hoping to create panic. Initially they would force the price into a downward spiral, and then they would buy the stock back at a considerably lower price and make a profit. The uptick rule allowed a short sale only after a stock went up from its previous price, thereby preventing or at least slowing these market manipulators. Without the uptick rule, market volatility increased, deepening the atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty; the VIX index, which is a key measure of volatility, quadrupled. (Source: Forbes, October 19, 2009)

    On February 23, 2009, the SEC passed a new rule similar to the uptick rule regarding the ability to sell short. This new rule applies to stocks that decline at least 10% in a single day. For such stocks, the SEC will allow short selling only if the price of the sale is above the highest bid price nationally. In other words, the short seller is blocked from dumping the shares at a cut rate price. (Source: WSJ, February 25, 2010)

    Ben Bernanke made a comment on February 24th, 2010, acknowledging the issues with mark-to-market accounting: “…commercial real estate loans should not be marked down because the collateral value has declined. It depends on the income from the property, not the collateral value.” It would have been much better for the economy if Mr. Bernanke had been this clear about mark-to-market accounting back in 2008. If he had been, the U.S. might have avoided the panic of 2008. (Source: First Trust Economic Commentary, March 31, 2010)

    When the mark-to-market rule was repealed on March 8th, 2009, the equity markets, led by financial companies, kicked off like rockets from their lows. One day later, on March 9th, the S&P 500 hit its low point, marking the end of the Bear market. (Source: Forbes, October 19, 2009)

    Wow – what a comedy of errors! This seems a bit unusual to have some new laws go into effect that ended up being disastrous and then having to make a complete reversal back to the old rules and wonder how this could have happened in the first place. I am not sure if anyone will ever know that answer.

    The bottom line is that I think the following statement is accurate:

    One of the major causes for this Great Recession was a change in the accounting rules – “mark-to-market” – and how to calculate the value of an investment for a financial services company.

    These reasons are not the only causes of our recent financial crisis, but they were major contributors. However, the subject of “mark-to-market” is rarely referenced by the media as a major cause of the Great Recession; even former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was interviewed recently about how his actions or inactions while he was in office caused this Great Recession and he replied that the crisis was inevitable for various reasons, but made no reference to mark-to-market accounting. Unless these facts are fully disclosed to the public, there is a good likelihood that many investors will never know how a change in accounting rules could cause such economic turmoil worldwide.

    We must now face the challenge of redesigning the regulatory overlay of the global financial system in order to make it more robust without destroying its ability to innovate and spur economic growth.

    Conclusion
    The severe global sell-off that erupted in 2008 coincided with the global recession that affected developed and developing markets alike. One year later, the outlook is much different. Most stock markets have recorded extraordinary gains, boosted by government and Central Bank interventions. Stronger-than-expected corporate profits are a sign of stability and recovery in economies throughout the world.

    Despite the strong rebound in global stock markets, financial and economic difficulties persist in many countries, particularly the United States. However, remember that the problems facing equity markets today (inflation, unemployment, regulatory uncertainty) have been experienced—and conquered—before.

    As many of you already know, the media often takes information and blows it out of proportion, making it appear much better or worse than it actually is. Don’t fall prey to all the negativity in financial journalism! A journalistic obsession with unemployment, the declining dollar and other catastrophes, real and imagined, leaves little room for observing the signs of a strong economic recovery. Remember—the ultimate goal of financial journalism isn’t to help you become financially confident and independent; it’s to get you to buy more financial journalism!

    In our opinion, journalism’s goal is to keep your focus as short-term as possible (ideally minute to minute) so you won’t dare turn off that television. Our goal is to help you think, plan, and invest for the long term.

    Yours truly,

    Jerry Lynch CFP CLU ChFC

    P.S. The government bailout of various financial companies is starting to look far less expensive than once feared and is shrinking to just a fraction of previous estimates. Treasury Department officials said that the total expenses will be approximately $89 billion, which includes the Troubled Assets Relief Program, capital injections into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and various other courses of action it has taken over the last couple of years. Just a year ago, the government estimated that the overall bailout would cost more than $250 billion. (Source: WSJ, April 12, 2010)

    P.P.S. This new health care plan is very lengthy – over 2,000 pages – and as you know, longer documents do not necessarily mean it’s a better document. For example, let’s put this into a little perspective:

    • The Lord’s Prayer: 66 words
    • The Ten Commandments: 179 words
    • The Gettysburg Address: 286 words
    • The Declaration of Independence: 1,300 words
    • U.S. governmental regulations on the sale of cabbage: 26,911 words
    (Source: ‘Game Over’ by Stephen Leeb)
    • U.S. tax code, tax regulations IRS ruling: 71,684 words (more than 4 times the 16,500 words that this data consisted of 41 years ago in 1969
    (Source: CATO Institute)

    I am not sure how many words there are in the over 2,000 pages of the health care plan, but I am sure that no matter how you want to describe it, simplification is needed in government contracts and regulations!

    Sources: Wall Street Journal (2/25/10, 3/26/10, 4/1/10, 4/3/10, 4/8/10, 4/12/10, 4/13/10, 4/14/10), Business Week (), New York Times (3/24/10), By The Numbers (2/1/10, 2/15/10, 4/12/10), Barron’s (3/8/10, 4/12/10), Times Magazine (2/15/10, 2/25/10), Kiplinger’s Personal Finance (2/10/10, 3/24/10, 4/20/10), Morningstar Stock Investor (1st quarter 2010), The Economist (3/6/10, 3/20/10), Bob LeClair’s Finance Newsletter (2/20/10), Forbes (10/19/09, 3/29/10, 4/26/10), USA Today (3/27/10), Nick Murray Interactive (2/10/10) Mark-To-Market – book sources: Fool’s Gold by Gillian Tett; Financial Shock by Mark Zandi; How Capitalism Will Save Us by Steve Forbes. This newsletter was prepared by MDP, Inc.(c) MDP, Inc.

    Note: The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Comprehensive Asset Management and Servicing, Inc. and should not be construed, directly or indirectly, as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Investors should be aware that there are risks inherent in all investments, such as fluctuations in investment principal. With any investment vehicle, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Material discussed herewith is meant for general illustration and/or informational purposes only, please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information should be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

    Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

    Indexes cannot be invested in directly, are unmanaged and do not incur management fees, costs or expenses. No investment strategy, such as asset allocation, can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. International investing involves special risks not present with U.S. investments due to factors such as increased volatility, currency fluctuation, and differences in auditing and other financial standards. These risks can be accentuated in emerging markets.

    There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio in any given market environment. Rebalancing investments may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when rebalancing a non-retirement account, taxable events will be created that may increase your tax liability.

    This optimism about the future does not minimize the fact that we have gone through one of the worst economic periods in market history. Remember that equity markets are volatile and an investor may lose money and there is no guarantee that securities will appreciate.
    The price of commodities is subject to substantial price fluctuations of short periods of time and may be affected by unpredictable international monetary and political policies. The market for commodities is widely unregulated and concentrated investing may lead to higher price volatility.

    In general, the bond market is volatile, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss. The investor should note that investments in lower-rated debt securities (commonly referred to as junk bonds) involve additional risks because of the lower credit quality of the securities in the portfolio. The investor should be aware of the possible higher level of volatility, and increased risk of default.

    Investments in real estate have various risks including possible lack of liquidity and devaluation based on adverse economic and regulatory changes.

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  • 19Mar

    Say the word “taxes” and most people groan. There are good reasons for this response: Many taxpayers view the cost of paying taxes as a financial burden, and feel frustrated every time they review their paychecks after federal income taxes, state income taxes, social security and Medicare taxes are withheld!

    Current tax laws are very complicated and change constantly. The federal tax rules were less than 400 pages in 1913 and increased to 67,204 pages by the year 2007!

    Unfortunately, for many taxpayers, your tax bill just went way up. When the clock hit midnight on January 1st, 2010, some 70 new taxes on the middle class and small businesses went into effect, thanks to Congress’ failure to prevent the expiration of many popular and economically vital tax breaks. For example, the Senate Finance Committee estimates that about 25 million middle class Americans are now expected to get hit with the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) in 2010.

    Here is a list of some of the many tax reduction strategies that expire in 2010:

    • The homebuyer’s tax credit
    • Tax deduction for state and local taxes
    • Tax deduction for college tuition and fees
    • Research tax credit for businesses
    • Tax-free IRA payouts to charities

    Congress has promised to visit reinstating many of the tax breaks that have expired. It is highly doubtful that in an election year that Congress will allow 25 million Americans to experience a surprise AMT bill.

    How can you combat the feeling of dread when it comes to taxes? It helps to know that the tax laws are peppered with many, many tax breaks to which you may be entitled.

    Here is a report that can help you identify some tax areas for you to investigate. Of course, just like with any other tax report, you should always consult your tax professional before making any changes or final decisions.

    We hope you find this information helpful.

    Yours truly,
    Jerry Lynch
    CFP™ CLU ChFC

    Table of Contents

    Introduction 3
    Tax Law Changes Effective 2011 3
    Tax Laws Effective 2009 4
    - Filing Options 4
    - Capital Gains and Losses 4
    - Tax Strategies for IRAs and Other Retirement Accounts 7
    - Eight Tax-Savvy Tips for Small Business Filers 10
    - Refunds, Interest, Refinancing and Moving Costs 11
    - Education-Related Savings 12
    - Tax Breaks for Charitable Contributions 13
    - Medical Deductions 14
    - Miscellaneous Important Areas to Review 15
    - Take Advantage of Tax Credits 18
    - Alternative Minimum Tax 20
    - Summary 20

    Introduction

    Many new tax laws have been passed over the last decade, a number of which were geared primarily towards stimulating the U.S. economy. Quite a few of these laws came into effect in the last couple of years and some of them will not officially start until 2011! Several rules are only good for one year—unless, of course, they get extended again!

    This special report reviews some of the major tax law changes that have taken place and covers a wide range of tax reduction strategies for all types of taxpayers: individuals, trusts, business owners, inheritors, retirees and those nearing retirement. In fact, it’s still not too late to reduce your 2009 income taxes. As you read this report, please note each specific tax strategy you think you could possibly incorporate in your particular scenario. Remember that every situation is different and the strategies discussed may not be appropriate for all taxpayers. Tax laws, as you know, are very complex and often one strategy might offset another strategy. What worked in the past might not be appropriate today. In addition to this, your state income tax laws could be different from the federal income tax laws. Be sure to reconfirm what the income tax liability would be before any action is taken. It is prudent to discuss any ideas with your tax preparer prior to making any final decisions.

    Although the majority of this report is geared towards reducing 2009 income taxes, we felt it was also important to inform you about any major tax law changes, even if they don’t become effective until 2010. I hope you will find this information helpful.

    Tax Law Changes Effective 2011
    Source: TIAA CREF, 2007

    Unfortunately, there will most likely be a significant income tax increase starting in 2011 even if no new tax laws are passed! How can this happen?

    There were many tax laws passed by Congress in 2001 that significantly reduced the income taxes rates. Unfortunately, many of these tax changes were temporary and scheduled to expire, or “sunset”, 10 years later. Unless Congress passes new legislation, the lower income tax rates that took effect in 2001 will expire in 2011 and the higher tax rates that existed pre-2001 will be reinstated.

    For example, the current 15% top tax rate on qualified dividends will become taxable as ordinary income at rates up to 39.6%! The top 15% tax rate today on long-term capital gains will increase to 20%.

    The current administration proposes a number of changes in the current tax laws. President Obama’s proposals include reinstating many of the expiring tax laws mentioned above. In addition, many of Obama’s proposals would make some of these temporary tax breaks permanent.

    President Obama wants to revise the higher top-tax rates (36% and 39.6%) which were in effect before the Bush tax cuts were passed in 2001. The proposed plan in fiscal 2011 would start the 36% tax bracket at about $231,000 of taxable income for married couples and about $196,000 for single filers. Obama’s plans also include cutbacks in itemized deductions and personal exemptions for higher wage earners.

    Tax Law Changes Effective 2009

    Filing Options

    1. Married Filing Jointly or Married Filing Separately? In some situations, it may be more beneficial for a married couple to file separately. In others, it might be best to consider filing a joint tax return. However, once you file jointly, your tax return cannot be amended to file separately, so calculate your tax both ways before filing. It often makes a big difference in your income taxes, especially if there is a significant medical deduction for one of the parties and you can show that there was also very little income for that individual.
    2. Are you considered divorced for tax purposes? In certain circumstances, you can actually file as single or head of household even if the divorce is not finalized. Make sure you see your tax preparer for these details.
    3. Are you taking all available dependent exemptions? If you are taking care of a dependent relative who earns little and you furnish more than 50% of that person’s financial support, make sure that you take the dependency exemption for that person. If you also pay for the dependent’s medical expenses, you can deduct those as well. There is now a new uniform definition of a child that applies to exemptions, a child tax credit, an Earned Income Credit, and a dependent care and Head of Household filing status.
    The value of each personal and dependency exemption is $3,650 in 2009, up $150 from 2008. Unfortunately, it eventually begins to partially phase-out at $166,800 of AGI for single filers and $250,200 for joint filers.
    4. Need more time to file your 2009 personal tax return? If so, apply for an automatic filing extension, form 4868, by April 15th, 2010 and the IRS will grant you an extra 6 months, no questions asked! However, an extension to file is not an extension to pay the tax. You still must estimate your income tax liability based on the information you have when you file for the extension. You must pay at least 90% of your 2009 estimated tax liability or 100% of 2008’s tax liability by the April 15th due date. Otherwise, the IRS may assess tax penalties.

    Capital Gains and Losses

    1. Don’t miss the 0% tax rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends. If you are in the 10% or 15% tax brackets for 2008, 2009, or 2010, the profit from the sale of assets owned for over a year and dividends that are generated by stocks is income tax-free until it pushes you into the 25% tax bracket. In 2009, the 25% bracket begins at $67,900 of taxable income for joint returns and $33,950 for single filers. Once your taxable income exceeds these thresholds, the remainder of your qualified dividends and long-term capital gains is taxed at 15%.
    2. Double-check any capital gains. In the event that you sold an asset during 2009, you most likely incurred a capital gain or loss. You will need to know the tax basis for this investment, which is usually what you paid for it, but this is not always the case.
    There are various methods to calculate your basis and capital gains (or losses). Unless you tell your broker otherwise, the IRS and the financial institution assumes you are calculating the average cost basis— add up the cost of all of your shares and divide by the number of shares you own. (Note: Once you sell shares using this averaging method, you are stuck with using this calculation for that investment, even if you own the investment in different accounts.)
    For some investments, such as stocks, however, you are often likely to do better tax-wise with the specified shares method, which is when you identify the specific shares you would like to sell. These are usually the shares with the highest basis and therefore the sale will generate the least amount of capital gain (or generate a capital loss). Calculating the basis of individual stocks or other investments (and deciding which shares to sell) can be difficult, especially if you have held the security for years and have been reinvesting dividends.
    For example, let’s assume you purchased XYZ stock 10 years ago for $60,000 and you sold it in 2009 for $80,000. The tax preparer will often assume that there is a $20,000 long-term capital gain. However, many investors reinvest their capital gains and dividends back into their investments and pay income taxes on these reinvested dividends and capital gains each year, which increases your cost basis and should be added to the original $60,000. Adjusting your cost basis in this way will reduce your capital gain and often creates a capital loss.
    Sales of securities showing the transaction date and sale price are listed on the 1099 generated by the financial institution. However, the 1099 does not usually show the cost basis or realized gain or loss for each sale. If you don’t know the cost basis, call your broker and discuss with him/her which method you want to use to calculate the cost basis to make sure it is calculated accurately and results with the least amount of tax.
    Mistakes in calculating the cost basis can occur frequently with inherited property. For example, let’s assume that “Harry” and “Martha” purchased a piece of raw land twenty years ago for $200,000, made no improvements to the land, and sold it for $1,800,000. However, let’s also assume that Harry passed away on November 20th, 2009 and Martha sold the property right after he passed away on November 25th, 2009. If Harry and Martha held this property as joint tenants, she would be entitled to a special tax break called a “step-up in basis”, which means that Harry’s basis in this property gets stepped-up to the fair market value as of the date of Harry’s death.
    Let’s now calculate Martha’s new adjusted basis of this property. Harry’s original basis was $100,000 (half of $200,000) and Martha’s basis is also $100,000. However, if the fair market value as of the date of Harry’s death was $1,800,000, that means that Harry’s basis gets stepped-up from $100,000 (his original half) to $900,000 (half of the current fair market value as of the date of his death). Martha inherited his half and therefore her new basis would be her original basis (for 50% ownership) of $100,000 plus Harry’s step-up in basis (for his 50% ownership) of $900,000, for a new basis (for 100% of this property) of $1,000,000. In this case, Martha’s capital gain is $800,000 ($1,800,000 minus $1,000,000) rather than the $1,600,000 capital gain if it had been sold prior to Harry’s death.
    Please also note that if Harry and Martha lived in a community property state (Arizona, California, Idaho, Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Washington and Wisconsin) and if they held title as community property or had a Community Property Agreement, there would have been a double step-up in basis. Martha’s new basis would be 100% of the fair market value as of the date of Harry’s death. Harry’s half ownership would still have received the same step-up in basis, as mentioned above, but so would Martha’s half. By doing this, Martha’s new basis for the property would have been the full $1,800,000, and if she sold it for $1,800,000, she would not have any capital gains. And, of course, with no capital gains, there would be no income tax at all. Talk about tax savings!
    *Very important.* If a married couple did not have a community property agreement at the date of one of the spouse’s deaths, the surviving spouse usually has another strategy. The surviving spouse usually can file a spousal property petition and go to court and show the judge that the money used to purchase this property was community property and that you were married at the time that you purchased the property. In most cases, the judge will rule that the property (and other assets as well) are deemed to be community property and therefore most of the assets in the estate will receive a double step up in basis, which reduces taxes significantly, as illustrated earlier! There is a limited amount of time that the surviving spouse has in order to file this special petition, which can vary state by state.
    Please also note – if an investment was sold in a prior year and you discover that the basis was calculated incorrectly, you can usually go back as far as three years to amend your tax return and you may receive a tax refund.
    In the event that someone is in extremely poor health, be aware of the tax consequences of any sales or gifting of assets. Remember – if the taxpayer sold an appreciated asset prior to passing, there will be capital gains. In the event that someone inherited this appreciated property after the client passed, there usually will be a step-up in basis and the asset can be sold with no capital gains at that point. Be careful – gifted assets do not receive a step-up in basis. In the event that an individual gave appreciated assets away on his death bed before he passed, the recipient would not receive a step-up in basis and would still have the same lower cost basis as the donor.
    3. Maximum home-sale exclusion. The home-sales gain exclusion offers one of the biggest income tax breaks. You can have a gain of up to $500,000 for a joint couple ($250,000 for single filers) income tax-free on the sale of a house that you have used as your primary residence for at least 2 out of the 5 years before the sale.

    In many circumstances you are also eligible for this exclusion even if you have not lived there in the last two years if the sale is due to change of employment, health, or other unforeseen circumstances.

    This is not a one-time election. You can still take this exclusion even if you have used it in the past.

    Unfortunately, in the past, the full $500,000 exclusion could be claimed only if a couple filed a joint tax return in the year they sold it. So, if the surviving spouse sold the home a year after the death of the spouse, the spouse was limited to the smaller $250,000 exclusion. This new tax law allows the surviving spouse to take the larger $500,000 exclusion for a sale occurring within 2 years of the deceased spouse’s death (assuming the individual meets other tax law requirements).
    4. Recalculate depreciation on inherited rental or business property. As mentioned above, if you inherit any depreciable assets (such as rental property), there is usually a step-up in basis on part or all of the property and the property can then be depreciated all over again using the current fair market value as of the date of death!
    5. Check last year’s income tax returns for any capital loss carry-over. In the event that you had over $3,000 of net capital losses in 2008, the difference can be carried forward to 2009. This is often overlooked and is extremely useful since capital losses from prior years can offset the current and future year’s capital gains without limitations.
    6. Opt out of an installment sale. If you’ve sold a capital asset, such as real estate, in 2009, it might make sense to record the entire taxable gain all at once in 2009 even if you are taking payments on an installment basis. Remember that joint filers who have a taxable income of $67,900 or less have a long-term capital gains tax rate of 0% and therefore they should consider recognizing all the proceeds from the sale this year and possibly avoid capital gains tax all together.
    Another reason to recognize 100% of the gain in 2009 is that you might have realized losses from your portfolio in 2009 that can be used to offset the extra capital gain on the installment sale.
    7. Do you own any worthless securities? If you were unlucky enough to own shares of a company that went bankrupt in 2009, you might be able to claim a deduction for the worthless stock. Be careful not to forget about this, as worthless securities sometimes have a way of disappearing from brokerage statements.
    Even if you did not sell the worthless stock during the last year, you can still claim it as a tax deduction if you can show that it is technically worth less than what it would cost to sell it or if it is no longer traded on any of the stock market exchanges. Be careful because if the company files for bankruptcy protection while it reorganizes, the company is usually deemed to still have a profit motive and their stock is not necessarily considered worthless. However, once the company essentially ceases all operations with no plans of resuming, you are usually able to deduct the cost basis in this stock or bond even without selling it. For added insurance for this tax deduction, get a letter from your brokerage company confirming it is a worthless security or sell it to someone for a small price, such as $1.
    Please remember that if you own a worthless investment in a tax-deferred account, such as an IRA, the loss is not deductible.
    8. Review losses on start-up corporations. In the event that you are one of the original owners of a closely held corporation, then hopefully your tax attorney established in your articles of incorporation that this was a Section 1244 company. If a Section 1244 company goes belly-up, then 100% of the loss up to $100,000 is immediately deductible in the year it becomes worthless. The amount over $100,000 is deductible as a capital loss.
    9. Review any bad debts that became worthless during 2009. If you lent money to someone and you are unable to collect the amount that is owed, you can usually claim a deduction for this bad debt. However, this non-business bad debt is deductible in the year in which it actually becomes totally worthless.
    It is best to document any correspondence and other type of communication that supports your claim that the bad debt (or other investments) became worthless during 2009 and not in some other year. Providing this documentation should assist you significantly in discussing this subject with the IRS should an audit arise. Correspondence created after an IRS audit is often not looked upon very favorably.

    10. Don’t forget a tax break on bonds. If you buy bonds on the secondary market, chances are you will owe part of your first interest payment to the seller. However, when you receive the 1099 for the bond interest, it will usually state that all of the interest was paid to you. You can deduct from that number the amount you paid to the seller, and you will only pay tax on the difference. This is a much-overlooked tax break for bond investors!

    Tax Strategies for IRAs and Other Retirement Accounts

    1. The Worker, Retiree, and Employer Recovery Act of 2008 was signed into law by President Obama on December 21st, 2008, and suspended mandatory withdrawals (RMDs) from retirement accounts for 2009 only. This should reduce the income tax in 2009 for most retirees, but there is not a lot you can do in 2010 except cross your fingers. Cross your fingers? A tax bill was recently entered into Congress to extend this law through 2010. We will keep you updated because this could seriously change your tax planning for 2010. However, as of the date of this report, this suspension of RMDs is good for 2009 only.

    2. Make your 2009 IRA contribution as late as April 15th, 2010. There is still time to trim your 2009 income taxes by contributing to a tax-deductible IRA. You can contribute up to $5,000 (or $6,000 if you are 50 or older) until the time you file your income tax return, but no later than April 15th, 2010.

    If you participate in a retirement plan at work, the IRA deduction phases out if you are married and your joint AGI is $89,000 or more, or if you are single and your adjusted gross income is $55,000 or more.

    3. Make a deductible contribution to a spousal IRA. If you do not participate in a workplace-based retirement plan but your spouse does, you can deduct some or all of your IRA contributions on your 2009 income tax return as long as your adjusted gross income does not exceed $176,000.

    4. Make a contribution to a Roth IRA. Contributions to Roth IRAs are not tax deductible, but the earnings on them may be withdrawn totally income tax-free in the future as long as the distributions are qualified. A Roth IRA distribution is qualified if you have had the account for at least five years and the distribution is made after you’ve reached age 59½; because you have a permanent disability; in the event of your death; or for first-time homebuyer expenses. Contribution limits are the same as traditional IRAs, except the maximum contribution for both Roth and traditional IRAs is still limited to $5,000, or $6,000 for persons age 50 or older. Regardless of whether you’re covered by an employer plan, to qualify for a Roth, your AGI for 2009 cannot exceed $176,000 if you are married or $120,000 if you are single. You can also make a spousal Roth IRA contribution, subject to the same phase-outs, for a non-working spouse.

    5. Consider “re-characterizing” your Roth IRA back to a traditional IRA if you converted from a traditional IRA to a Roth during 2009. (We’re talking about conversions here, not contributions.)

    Please note: Prior to January 1st, 2010, you could only convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA if your AGI was $100,000 or less (before the conversion). However, this dollar cap is now removed starting January 1st, 2010 and there is no limit to your earnings in order to qualify for a Roth IRA conversion.

    Please also note that a Roth IRA conversion does not have to be all or nothing. You can convert any dollar amount you decide is best for your situation. In addition, if you convert to a Roth IRA in 2010, the income can be reported 100% on your 2010 tax return, or you can report 50% of the Roth conversion on your 2011 tax return and 50% of the Roth conversion on your 2012 tax return. Unfortunately, this could backfire because tax rates will most likely increase starting in 2011. Why defer the income to future years if you will be in a higher tax rate?

    You may have converted part or all of your traditional IRA to a Roth IRA during 2009. The taxable income for the conversion is based on the value of your account on the conversion date. Unfortunately, the value of your Roth IRA account may have dropped since then. A strategy to avoid paying higher taxes than necessary is to re-characterize (undo) your Roth IRA, switching it back to the traditional IRA so you will not be taxed on the higher value of the IRA at the time of the conversion. By returning the money to the traditional IRA, you eliminate the need to pay tax on the Roth IRA conversion. The deadline to re-characterize a 2009 Roth IRA conversion back to your traditional IRA is October 15, 2010, assuming that you file the maximum tax extensions. If you already filed your tax return for 2009, file form 1040X to get back the tax you paid on the conversion.

    This strategy offers the potential for significant tax savings. For example, let us assume your traditional IRA was worth $300,000 when you converted it to a Roth IRA on January 10, 2009. Let us assume that all the funds consisted of deductible IRA contributions and tax-deferred earnings. If you are in the 35% income tax bracket, the conversion would cost you $105,000 in income taxes ($300,000 x 35%).

    Let us now assume that the stock market dropped and the current value of your Roth IRA has declined to $200,000. It is difficult enough to swallow the fact that your IRA account has gone down in value, but it is even worse when you discover that you have to pay the tax on the full $300,000 conversion even though your Roth IRA account value is now only worth $200,000! Therefore, in most cases it would be best to re-characterize the Roth IRA back to a traditional IRA. Then, if you want to, you can reconvert the funds in the “new” IRA back into a “new” Roth IRA. There is a 31 day requirement before you can reconvert the funds back into the Roth (remember – this is optional), but the tax savings on this simple transaction are significant – $300,000 less $200,000 = $100,000 x 35% = $35,000 less taxes merely by filling out some additional paperwork!

    6. Consider re-characterizing part of your Roth IRA conversion even if your Roth IRA account went up in value. This sounds a bit strange at first, but many taxpayers probably converted too much into their Roth IRA in 2009. In most cases, you should only convert the amount that would push you to the top of your current federal marginal income tax bracket. For example, if your taxable income is $50,000 and you are married filing a joint tax return, you will go from the 15% tax bracket to the 25% tax bracket once your taxable income reaches about $68,000. Therefore, the optimal amount for the conversion during 2009 would have been about $18,000. Calculate how much you should have converted and compare it to the actual amount that was converted. If the converted amount was significantly more than the optimal amount, you might want to re-characterize to reduce your taxes.

    As you can see, the tax rules regarding Roth IRAs can be very complicated and confusing. We have a new booklet on this subject called “To Roth or Not to Roth?” which covers all these new rules in much greater detail. If you would like to receive a free copy of this booklet, please call our office at (973)439-1190. Roth IRA conversions and re-characterizations may not be appropriate for all investors. Please also call us if you have any questions or would like to review these details in person.

    7. Do not overlook the Retirement Savers Tax Credit. The saver’s credit is designed to help low-and moderate-income workers save for retirement. Lower-income taxpayers, such as young workers and retirees who work part-time, can reduce their tax bill by claiming the Retirement Savers Tax Credit. This tax credit, which has been made permanent, is worth up to $1,000 if you contribute $2,000 to a traditional or Roth IRA, 401(k), or other retirement plan at work. In order to claim the credit, you must be at least 18 years old and not a student, and you cannot be claimed as a dependent by anyone else. For 2009, you are eligible if you are single with an AGI of $27,750 or less, or married filing jointly with an AGI of $55,500 or less. This credit is in addition to the tax deduction that would otherwise apply with respect to the contribution. 2009 contributions can be made until April 15th, 2010.

    8. Make your business retirement plan contribution for 2009 as late as September 15th, 2010, for calendar-year corporations. The maximum retirement plan contribution will vary depending on the type of retirement plan you have established. Consult your retirement plan administrator to review your options.

    9. Have your business establish and fund a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA. Your business can still establish one in 2010 for 2009 until the extended due date of its tax return, provided it has no other pension plan. The extended due date for 2009 calendar year corporations is September 15, 2010 and October 15, 2010 for partnerships and self-employed individuals.

    For 2009, you can contribute up to the lesser of these 2 amounts:
    • $49,000 – an increase of $3,000 from 2008 – or
    • 25% of your salary compensation up to $245,000 for 2009 or 20% of your self-employment income if you have a business.
    Please note that contributions are discretionary, which means you are not locked into a particular amount for any year. You can change contributions for any reason or you can make no contribution at all. However, you must contribute the same percentage for each participant.

    10. Working taxpayers can put away more money for retirement in 2009. The 401(k) plan maximum contribution rose to $16,500 in 2009 (a $1000 increase). Employees who are over 50 can also contribute an additional $5,500, for a total of $22,000. These contribution limitations apply to 403(b) and 457 plans as well.

    11. Recheck penalties on distributions from retirement accounts. Withdrawals from IRAs and qualified retirement plans are often subject to a 10% early distribution penalty unless you qualify under any of the fifteen different exceptions that are available, such as disability and military service. For a list of these specific exceptions, please see IRS publication 575, Pension and Annuity Income.

    Eight Tax-Savvy Tips for Small Business Filers

    With a little effort, you can maximize the tax benefits for your small business. Here are a few examples:
    1. Recheck your depreciation calculation. It generally takes a long time – 39 years to be exact – to write off the cost of most building improvements. Recently, Congress authorized a faster 15-year write-off period for qualified restaurants and leasehold improvements, which applies to expenditures by lessors and lessees. In 2008, the bailout law extended this tax strategy through 2009.
    You might also qualify for bonus depreciation, which enables a business to deduct 50% of the cost of qualifying assets placed in service in 2009. This bonus depreciation is in addition to the normal depreciation.
    2. Speed up equipment write-offs. Under section 179 of the tax code, you can elect to “expense”, or currently deduct, up to $250,000 of equipment costs and other business assets placed in service for 2009. The section 179 deduction is very favorable because you can take an immediate deduction for equipment, instead of depreciating it over a period of years.
    3. Increase your home office deductions. If you are self-employed and use part of your home exclusively as your principal place of business (or exclusively as a place to meet or deal with clients, customers or patients in the normal course of business) you are entitled to deduct home office expenses. For example, you can claim a depreciation allowance plus write-offs for a portion of your home utilities, insurance, etc. Attach form 8829, which is Expenses for Business Use of Your Home, to your return.
    4. Don’t forget out-of-pocket business expenses. Review all of your records to maximize your deductions at tax time. If you paid any business expenses personally, have the company reimburse you for these expenses, which is tax deductible by the business entity and income tax-free to you!
    It may be possible to deduct some of these expenses on schedule A as Miscellaneous Itemized deductions. However, these expenses are usually not 100% tax deductible due to the 2% limitation and these Miscellaneous Itemized Deductions are not deductible for the Alternative Minimum Tax calculation. Therefore, it is usually best to run them through the business instead. Here are just a few tax deductable business expenses many taxpayers overlook:
    • Legal and accounting fees.
    • Business telephone calls made away from your office.
    • Business supplies.
    • Business usage of personal computer expenses such as paper, online services, printer, etc.
    • Interest on credit cards. When you use plastic to pay for business expenses, the interest and often the carrying charges are fully deductible.
    • Home entertainment. If you invite a client to your home to have a business discussion, you can usually deduct 50% of your entertainment costs.
    • Subscriptions to business publications.
    • Business use of automobile. The standard mileage rate is 55 cents per mile for 2009.
    • Dues for professional organizations.
    • Various travel expenses, such as the cost of luggage used exclusively for business travel, the dry cleaning of business clothes, and tips paid to doormen, luggage handlers, taxi, etc.
    • Repairs to business equipment.
    • Cell phone costs relating to business.
    5. Know whether or not a fringe benefit is taxable income. The IRS has a handy guide to fringe benefits, which is a 118-page training manual for agents that has been updated to reflect the Service’s current views. Go to www.irs.gov/publications/p15b/index.html to view the handbook.
    6. Maximize your write-off for that company holiday party. If you own a business and hosted a holiday party for employees, you can deduct 100% of your cost instead of the 50% usually deducted for regular business entertainment. And you didn’t even have to talk about business! Just make sure all of your employees were invited. To get the full write-off, you cannot discriminate by limiting the party to executives.
    7. Recheck medical insurance premiums if you are self-employed. Self-employed people frequently overlook this deduction, which includes premiums for dental, vision, and long-term care insurance (subject to limitations), as well as general health insurance.
    If you are a sole proprietor, hire your spouse and offer family coverage for all employees. If your spouse is your only employee there is no extra out-of-pocket cost. The full cost of the medical plan is deducted on schedule C as a business expense. However, you must be careful and make sure that the employee-spouse is the primary insured on the policy and that premiums are paid from the business checking account. Otherwise, the premiums will not be deductable as a business expense.
    8. Check to see if you can take a Net Operating Loss (NOL) carry-back. C corporations and owners of pass-through entities, such as partnerships and S corporations, may have NOLs. In most cases, losses are automatically carried back for two years and carried forward up to 20 years to offset income in those years. However, most businesses can now elect to carry back losses for up to 5 years.

    Refunds, Interest, Refinancing and Moving Costs

    1. Do not necessarily report a State income tax refund as taxable income. If you filed a standard deduction in 2008 on your Federal tax return, the state refund you may have received in 2009 is income tax-free.
    2. Review interest paid on your home equity line of credit to determine the right tax form to take the deduction that gives you the most tax savings. You can deduct mortgage interest on up to $100,000 of home-equity borrowing, regardless of what the money was used for. Interest paid on mortgages of second homes is usually tax deductible too! Unfortunately, the interest on non-business and non-housing expenses is usually not deductible for computation of regular tax or the AMT (unless the loan was used to buy, build, or substantially improve your home and was secured by your home).

    However, if you use a home-equity loan to pay business expenses, you can deduct the interest on it as business interest instead of mortgage interest on schedule A, provided you can trace the loan proceeds directly to a business use. Doing this can have several advantages over deducting it as a mortgage interest expense. Business interest is deductible on an unlimited amount of home-equity borrowing. Also, the business interest deduction is allowed under the Alternative Minimum Tax. Business interest expense also reduces income from a proprietorship, thus reducing self-employment taxes along with reducing your Adjusted Gross Income. Mortgage interest will not reduce either of these.

    3. Review other interest expenses. If you borrowed on credit cards and utilized these loans for business purposes, then the interest is tax deductible. It is also possible that you borrowed money for investment purposes, which you can usually deduct up to the amount of your investment income. In many cases, however, it is best to get a home equity line of credit in order to pay off other non-business debt, which is not tax deductible.
    4. Review your refinancing costs. If you paid points (loan fees) on a loan used to purchase a new residence, these are fully deductible in the year you purchased your house. Points associated with home improvement loans are usually fully deductible in the year that the points are paid.
    Please note that if refinancing proceeds are used to improve a residence, the points are fully deductable when paid.
    However, if you refinanced your house or purchased a rental property or second home, these points must be deducted over the lifetime of the loan. For example, let’s assume you had $6,000 of points you paid in 2002 for a rental property and it was for a 30-year loan. You took a deduction of $200 ($6,000/30) on each of your tax returns from 2002 to 2008, or a total of $1,400.
    Any remaining points on mortgages repaid before the mortgage falls due are deductible in the year of the repayment. Let’s now assume that in 2009 you refinanced the property above for 30 years and paid new points of $3,000. You can then deduct the remaining $4,600 ($6,000 – $1,400) of the points on the old loan, plus $100 (one-thirtieth of the $3,000) on the new loan.
    5. Remember deductions for mortgage insurance. If you bought your residence after 2006 and you made a down payment of less than 20%, you are probably paying for mortgage insurance. If your Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) is $100,000 or less, you can now deduct all of your private mortgage insurance, or mortgage insurance that you purchased through the Veteran’s Administration or Rural Housing Administration. (The IRS added a separate line to the form 1098 from your lender that shows how much mortgage insurance you paid in 2009.) Unfortunately, this deduction phases out completely once your AGI exceeds $110,000. This tax law is now extended through 2010.

    Also, a new IRS ruling (IRS notice 2008-15) allows you to allocate premiums for qualified mortgage insurance through 2010 over an 84-month time period instead of the mortgage term, which will generally provide a much bigger deduction.

    6. Did you move during the year? In the event you moved from one state to another, the old state usually cannot tax any income that you earned after the move. However, this can get tricky, depending on the specific date when you left that state. Be sure to recheck these numbers in order to avoid paying unnecessary state income taxes. If you worked in multiple states, determine if you paid the correct tax for that applicable state. There is often a credit available in your resident state for taxes paid to other states.
    If you relocated for a new job that is at least 50 miles further from your old house than your old job was, you can claim moving expenses even if you don’t itemize other deductions. You can deduct 24 cents per mile for moving expenses incurred for travel in 2009.

    Education-Related Savings

    Congress has created a number of tax breaks over the last few years to help pay for education – including adult education. Each benefit has its own rules including differing income limits for those eligible to use them. In addition, using one may preclude you from using another. Examine all of the available options and select the best one for your particular situation. For help, consult your tax advisor or read IRS publication 970, Tax Benefits For Education.

    1. Reduce your college tuition costs. The American Opportunity Tax Credit and the Lifetime Learning Credit are direct credits against taxes for education costs.
    College expenses for yourself, your spouse, or your child are eligible. The Lifetime Learning Credit is now as much as $2,000 for 2009 and will essentially refund 20% of the first $10,000 you spend for higher education costs. The income phase-outs are $50,000 to $60,000 for individuals and $100,000 to $120,000 for couples.
    2. American Opportunity Tax Credit. This temporarily replaced the Hope Credit for 2009 and 2010. The credit is 100% of the first $2,000, plus 25% of the next $2,000, spent each year on tuition, fees and course materials to a maximum credit of $2,500. It applies to all 4 years of college. Amounts paid in 2009 for the spring of 2010 are eligible for a 2009 credit. The credit phases out for single taxpayers with MAGI between $80,000 and $90,000 and for married couples with MAGI between $160,000 and $180,000.

    3. Do not overlook the tuition deduction. This deduction was passed only a couple of years ago and is often overlooked by taxpayers and tax preparers. Unfortunately, this valuable tax perk is scheduled to disappear after 2009. Under this tax break, eligible taxpayers are able to deduct qualified higher education expenses of up to $2,000, or $4,000 paid on behalf of themselves, their spouses, or their dependents. The write-off is taken as an adjustment to income, which means taxpayers can claim it even if they do not itemize deductions; however, the top Adjusted Gross Income to qualify is $160,000 for married couples or $80,000 for single filers.
    4. You may be able to deduct student-loan interest. If you are single and your AGI is $75,000 or less, or married with an AGI of $150,000 or less, you are eligible to deduct up to $2,500 in student loan interest for yourself, your spouse or your dependent. You can take the deduction regardless of whether you itemize.

    5. Teachers should review un-reimbursed expenses for teaching supplies. The maximum amount is $250 and it is an above-the-line deduction, which reduces your adjusted gross income. You do not have to itemize for this deduction. If you have more than $250 in qualifying expenses, you might be able to deduct them as miscellaneous itemized deductions if you itemize.

    Tax Breaks for Charitable Contributions

    If you donate or volunteer, review these tax deductions:
    1. Recheck your cash charitable contributions. There are new rules regarding charitable contributions made with cash. Taxpayers need to have a bank record or written communication from the recipient showing the name of the organization and the date and amount of the contribution in order to deduct cash contributions to a charity.

    A credit card statement or print-out of an online contribution should be enough to pass these requirements. You must obtain “contemporaneous written acknowledgement” from the charity if the contribution is $250 or more but less than $500.
    In the event you gave stocks or other assets in-kind to a non-profit organization during 2009, and you did not contribute 100% of that holding, be sure to identify the proper shares that were donated in order to take advantage of the tax laws.

    For example, if you purchased 100 shares of ABC stock 20 years ago for a cost basis of $1,000 and they are now worth $5,000, and you purchased another lot of 100 shares of ABC stock 2 years ago for $8,000 and they are worth $5,000, make sure that you instruct your stock broker that the shares you want to gift to the non-profit organization would be the appreciated 100 shares and not the 100 shares that went down in value! If you also want to give the shares that have dropped in value, be sure to sell these shares first, take the capital loss on your personal tax return, and then contribute the proceeds. Please recheck the details to confirm that everything has been documented and calculated properly.

    The IRS has certain rules that limit the charitable contributions a taxpayer can deduct on their tax returns. It is possible that a taxpayer might not be able to deduct 100% of their charitable contributions and can only take a deduction on their current income tax return using the following limitations:

    • Cash charitable contributions in full up to 50% of the donor’s adjusted gross income.
    • Property charitable contributions in full up to 30% of the donor’s adjusted gross income.
    • Charitable contributions of appreciated capital gains assets in full up to 20% of the donor’s adjusted gross income.
    • Any unused charitable contributions can be carried forward to future years.

    2. Review your gifts to Goodwill and the Salvation Army. These organizations will often give you a receipt that is not entirely filled out. It is best to do a guesstimate to determine the approximate value of these non-cash charitable contributions. No deduction is allowed for a charitable contribution of clothing or household items unless they are in good used condition or better.

    In the event that these gifts are worth more than $500 for the year, you must fill out form 8283. This is an easy form to complete and you should not lose an allowable deduction just because you don’t want to complete this form. However, if the total contribution is $500 or less, you do not need to fill out this form, but make sure you still get a receipt. If you donate a car or other expensive non-cash charitable contribution, there are rules for how much you may deduct. If you want more detailed information regarding these charitable contributions, please reference IRS publication 526, Charitable Contributions.

    In addition to cash and property donations, you can deduct mileage, parking fees, postage and long-distance phone calls made while performing charitable work.

    3. Remember charitable contributions made directly from your IRA to charity. Individuals who were at least age 70½ in 2009 could have given as much as $100,000 to charity straight from their IRA without having to pay tax on the distribution. These withdrawals, known as Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs), also count toward the taxpayer’s Required Minimum Distribution, yet they are not included in income. However, remember that no deduction is allowed for the charitable donation because there was never any tax paid on the distribution.
    Although you cannot claim the contribution as a charitable deduction, there are still many benefits by doing so. For example, your lower AGI may reduce the taxes you pay on your social security benefits. It also might be easier for you to qualify for other tax breaks, such as deducting medical expenses that exceed 7.5% of your AGI. In addition, if you are subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax, a lower income may mean less of the AMT exemption is lost due to the phase-out of the exemption. This law expired on December 31st, 2009.

    Medical Deductions

    Recheck medical expenses. You can deduct medical expenses in the event that they exceed 7.5% of your adjusted gross income (AGI). Most taxpayers do not qualify for this deduction because their actual medical expenses usually do not meet this threshold. If your medical expenses appear to have reached this threshold, then recheck your tax records and determine if anything has been overlooked. Please note that the threshold is 10% of your AGI when computing your Alternative Minimum Tax.

    • The limit on deductible pay-ins to Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) goes up in 2009. An HSA is another way to get a tax break for putting away money for health-care costs. HSAs allow you to pay for health care expenses with pre-tax dollars. You can also roll over unused contributions from year to year. So if you stay relatively healthy, it is possible to build up a nice nest egg for your retirement health costs.

    You can contribute up to $3,000 to the plan for 2009 for single coverage ($5,950 for family coverage). Contribution levels rise gradually each year and if you are 55 or over, you can actually make an additional contribution of $1,000 in 2009.

    • Review frequently overlooked medical expenses. Many tax deductible medical expenses are often overlooked, such as the following:
    o The deduction limits for long-term care insurance premiums for 2009 have been increased from 2008 (the amount allowed for tax deduction varies depending on your age). Taxpayers who are age 71 or older can claim as much as $3,980 per person. Filers age 61 to 70 can deduct $3,180. Those who are age 51 to 60 can deduct up to $1,190. Individuals age 41-50 can take $600. And people age 40 and younger – $300. Benefits from per diem or indemnity policies, which pay a predetermined amount each day, are not included income except amounts that exceed the beneficiary’s total qualified long-term care expenses or $280 per day, whichever is greater.

    o Nursing home costs
    o Medicare insurance premiums
    o The standard mileage rate for medical expenses is 24 cents per mile
    o Prescribed weight-loss programs
    o Stop-smoking classes
    o Prescriptions, especially the donut hole on Medicare prescriptions
    o Acupuncture
    o Chiropractic care
    o Therapy
    o Braces or other dental work
    o Eye glasses
    o It may also be possible to deduct medical expenses paid for your parent or child
    o Miscellaneous improvements to your house, such as adding a wheelchair ramp (or possibly even a hot tub, if the doctor prescribed this for various back problems). When in doubt, make sure you have a doctor’s prescription!

    If you incur a cost that appears non-medical but that is really medically related, get a statement from your doctor confirming that the cost has a medical purpose and keep it on file in case of an audit. You can also check IRS Publication 502, Medical and Dental Expenses, to see if any special rules apply to the item. If no restrictions apply, deduct it!

    • Check to see if you can deduct medical expenses you paid for relatives. Just because you aren’t eligible to claim a dependency exemption for a parent or other relative doesn’t mean you must lose out on deducting medical expenses you paid for them. For example, let us assume that Bill pays more than half of his father’s expenses. However, his father’s income in this example is greater than $3,650, which is the limit in 2009, and therefore Bill is unable to claim him as a dependent for this year. In this case, Bill can still include payments for medical expenses that he paid on his father’s behalf among his own medical expenses.

    Miscellaneous Important Areas to Review

    1. Write down all receipts you think are even possibly tax-deductible. Many taxpayers assume that various expenses are not deductible and do not even mention them to their tax preparer. Don’t assume anything—give your tax preparer the chance to tell you whether something is or is not deductible.

    2. See if you can deduct even more losses from your rental real estate. You can usually deduct up to $25,000 of losses from rental real estate when you actively participate in its management. However, this deduction is phased out once your AGI rises from $100,000 to $150,000.

    Please note that this rule does not apply if you are a professional real estate individual. In a new ruling during 2009, real estate agents can now claim a special tax break on their rental losses. Their rental real estate losses are exempt from the passive loss rules if they work more than half of their time and are materially involved in real estate at least 750 hours per year. This is the identical rule that applies to landlords, developers, and brokers.

    3. State and local property taxes are still deductible for non-itemizers. Don’t forget to include the extra deduction for real estate taxes, which is still available for 2009. A non-itemizer can deduct state and local property taxes in addition to claiming the standard deduction. The deduction is limited to the lesser of the property taxes actually paid or $1,000 for joint filers ($500 for single filers).

    4. New car purchases – sales taxes. Taxpayers who bought a new car before January 1st, 2010 may deduct sales and excise taxes on as much as $49,500 of the purchase price. This provision has a generous phase out: It doesn’t disappear until you reach between $250,000 and $260,000 of modified adjusted gross income for married couples and $125,000 to $135,000 for singles.

    There is no limit to how many vehicles you bought in 2009. For example, if you bought two cars costing $35,000 each, assuming a 4% sales tax, you could deduct $2,800 on your 2009 tax return.

    Non-itemizers get this break, too. They can add the sales tax amount to their standard deduction!

    5. Optional state and local sales tax deductions have been reinstated. Instead of deducting state and local income taxes, you can elect to deduct the state and local sales tax you paid during 2009. You can either total up all of the actual sales taxes that you paid on your family’s purchases during 2009 or, alternatively, you can base your deduction on state-by-state tables approved by the IRS. Even if you use the IRS tables, you can tack on extra sales tax you paid for certain big-ticket items, such as purchasing a new car or boat last year.

    6. Discharge of debt is not necessarily taxable. In most cases, a discharge of debt constitutes taxable income, unless an exception applies. Generally, the taxable amount is the difference between the debt’s principal balance and the amount used to satisfy the debt. For example, if a bank forecloses when you owe $300,000 on your home and then it sells the property for $250,000 in full satisfaction of the debt, you would normally owe income taxes on the $50,000 difference.

    Individuals who had mortgage debt forgiven from 2007 through 2012 may be able to claim special tax relief. The first $2,000,000 of mortgage debt forgiveness is income tax-free if the debt is secured by a principal residence and if the mortgage was used to buy, build, or substantially improve your home. You must reduce the amount of your basis in the home by the excluded amount, but not below zero. This new tax exclusion does not apply if the discharge is not directly related to a decline in the property’s value or your financial condition.

    Debt forgiven on second homes, personal property, business property, credit cards, or car loans does not qualify for the new tax-relief provision.
    7. Taxpayers 65 or older should recheck their standard deduction. The standard deduction in 2009 for singles is $5,700. Those 65 and older can take $7,100. Married can claim $11,400. If one spouse is 65 or older, the standard deduction rises to $12,500. If both are 65 and older, then the amount for the standard deduction is $13,600.
    8. Be careful not to overpay Social Security Taxes. If you received a paycheck from two or more employers, and earned more than $106,800 in 2009, you may be able to file a claim on your return for the excess Social Security tax withholding.
    9. Don’t forget deductions carried over from prior years because you exceeded annual limits, such as capital losses, passive losses, charitable contributions and alternative minimum tax credits.

    10. Calculate your estimated tax payments for 2010 very carefully. Most computer programs will automatically assume that your income-tax liability for the current year is the same as the prior year. This is done in order to avoid paying penalties for underpayment of estimated income taxes for the current tax year. However, in many cases this is not a correct assumption, especially if 2009 was an unusual income tax year due to the sale of a business, unusual capital gains, exercise of stock options, or even winning big in Las Vegas or winning the lottery!
    11. Check to see if your children are subject to the “Kiddie Tax”. Unfortunately, the potential benefits of the extension of the zero capital gains tax to lower bracket taxpayers in 2008-2010 will be severely restricted for many taxpayers with children. Just when you thought it was safe to transfer funds to your children, the Small Business and Work Opportunity Tax Act of 2007 has extended the dreaded “kiddie tax”, enacted to prevent parents from taking advantage of their children’s low tax rate.

    The kiddie tax is a special rule that taxes a child’s unearned income (usually interest and dividends) over a threshold amount ($1,900 in 2009). The first $950 of unearned (investment) income is tax-free, the second $950 is taxed to child at the child’s income tax rate, and the unearned income over this threshold is taxed to the child at the parent’s highest marginal income tax rate. Remember that all earned income (usually wages) is taxed at the child’s income tax rate.
    Children under 19 or full-time students under 24 (whose earned income is not in excess of half of his/her annual support) are also subject to the kiddie tax. Once a child turns 24, he or she is no longer subject to the kiddie tax on any income.

    12. Recheck changes in the Gift Tax laws. The annual gift tax exclusion rose from $12,000 for 2008 to $13,000 for 2009. This allows you give up to $13,000 each to any number of people without triggering the gift tax. For example, if you gave 1,000 friends each $13,000 during 2009 this would result in giving away $1,300,000 with no gift tax liability at all. A husband and wife can give away up to twice the annual gift tax exclusion, or $26,000. There is also no limit on how much you can give a spouse gift-tax-free, as long as the spouse is a citizen. If you give more than the amount allowed on an annual basis, then you must file a gift tax return, form 709.
    There are a few gifts that are not included as part of the annual exclusion. Tuition you pay directly to a school, rather than giving the money to the student and having him or her pay the tuition, is ignored by the gift tax rules. The same applies to medical bills you pay directly to a hospital, for example, on behalf of someone else, such as an adult child or friend.
    13. Consider opening up a 529 plan. A 529 plan is a college savings plan that allows individuals to save for college on a tax-advantaged basis. Every state offers at least one 529 plan. It is important to understand the fees and expenses with a 529 plan. You should also consider that certain states offer tax benefits and fee savings to in-state residents. Whether a state tax deduction and/or application fee savings are available depends on your state of residence.
    Withdrawals (including earnings) used for qualified education expenses – tuition, books and computers – are income tax free. Non-qualifying distribution earnings are taxable and subject to a 10% tax penalty. Investment earnings in 529 plans are not subject to the kiddie tax.
    If you contribute to a 529 state college-savings plan, you can use up to 5 year’s-worth of annual exclusions all at once. Thus, you can contribute up to $65,000 (5 X $13,000) to a 529 plan to your grandson this year without triggering the gift tax, as long as you don’t make additional gifts to him in the next 4 calendar years. Please remember that your spouse can also make a contribution, which would then allow a total of $130,000 to be invested in one year. What a great way to start planning for college!
    Another major benefit of the 529 plan is that you have control over who the eventual beneficiary is going to be should you change your mind in the future.
    14. Review estate tax law changes. The following example illustrates the complexity and absurdity of the current tax laws relating to estates. A person’s net worth could be as high as $1,000,000 (also known as the exemption) on December 31st, 2001 and would not have any federal estate tax. Over the next nine years the exemption increased to $3,500,000 during 2009. Then, effective January 1st, 2010 you can now have an unlimited amount in your estate without paying any estate taxes. Although this sounds good at first, it’s not! Next year, on January 1st, 2011, the maximum amount you can have in your net worth without paying any estate tax goes back down to $1,000,000!
    Although many people might celebrate this year with no estate taxes (at least for now), the problem is that the step-up in basis rules are modified as of January 1st, 2010 and only a limited amount of appreciated property will receive the step-up and the rest of your assets keep the same basis the decedent had before he passed away. The step-up in tax basis is a major tax break that affects many more people than the estate tax laws.
    The good news – it appears that there is a good likelihood that Congress will change some of these rules in the near future. Let’s hope that Congress does the right thing and reinstates the step-up in basis rules and finally decides on a reasonable amount for the estate tax exemption.

    Please note that this $3,500,000 is the exemption amount for federal estate taxes, and not for the state inheritance tax, which is usually different than the federal amount. Please check with your estate planning attorney to make sure that your estate planning documents are worded properly to take advantage of these 2 different sets of rules.

    Take Advantage of Tax Credits

    A tax credit is more valuable than a tax deduction; it reduces your income tax bill dollar for dollar compared with a tax deduction, which merely reduces the amount of income subject to tax. For example, a $1,000 tax credit will usually reduce your taxes by $1,000. A $1,000 tax deduction, if you are in the 25% tax bracket, would reduce your taxes by $250.
    1. Homebuyer’s credit. If you bought a new home last year or signed a buy-new contract for one by April 30th, 2010, you could be eligible for a new tax credit. You must also close escrow by June 30th, 2010. The new housing law authorizes a tax credit for purchases by “first-time homebuyers”, defined as anyone who has not owned a principal residence for the previous 3 years. Therefore, some older individuals might also qualify even if they have owned a house in the past.

    The tax credit is worth up to $8,000 or 10% of the cost of the home, but does not apply to the purchase of a residence costing more than $800,000. However, the credit must be repaid in certain circumstances. This tax credit is also refundable, meaning that even if a buyer doesn’t owe $8,000 of tax, he/she can claim the full benefit and receive a refund check.

    The new law also authorizes a similar $6,500 credit for buyers who already own a home and is equal up to 10% of the purchase price of the residence costing no more than $650,000. To qualify, the buyer has to have owned and lived in the same home for 5 of the 8 years preceding the new home purchase and the new home must become the buyer’s principal residence.

    Both of these credits phase out for individuals with a modified adjusted gross income of $125,000 or $225,000 for married filers.

    Best of all, a homebuyer does not have to wait until they file their 2010 tax returns to reap the rewards. Even if the purchase is not completed until 2010, the credit can be claimed on either the 2009 or 2010 tax return.

    There are a number of interesting twists to these new tax laws, including phase outs, new deadlines to qualify, and the tax years that may be used to generate the credit. As you can see, its complexity suggests you see a tax specialist in order to comply with all the rules.

    2. Home-Energy tax credit. Homeowners can receive a credit of 30% of what they spent on qualifying improvements and residential energy property expenditures, with a maximum credit of $1,500 in 2009. The credit applies to improvements such as insulation, energy-efficient exterior windows, and energy-efficient heating and air conditioning systems.

    From 2009 to 2016, you can also claim another completely separate federal income tax credit equal to 30% of expenditures to buy and install more exotic (and more expensive) energy-saving equipment for your home. Except for fuel cell equipment, there is no dollar limit on this credit, so big expenditures can translate into big credits which can carry on year after year through 2016. There are no income limits on this credit. And, you can even use it to reduce both your federal income tax liability and your AMT! For more information on this, refer to IRS form 5695, residential energy credits. In order to read more about which improvements may qualify for this credit, go to www.ase.org/taxcredits.

    3. Making work pay tax credit. This credit is intended to offset an individual’s shares of FICA on the first $6,450 of earnings. This credit is the lesser of 6.2% of earned income, up to a top credit of $400 for individuals and $800 for married couples. This credit is phased-out at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for married couples.

    4. Check to see if you qualify for a foreign tax credit. If your stock portfolio invests internationally, you may be entitled to claim a foreign tax credit for foreign income taxes on investment income paid by the investment company. This may reduce your U.S. taxes by the amount of tax paid by the investment to foreign governments. Unfortunately, this credit is often overlooked. Be sure to give your tax preparer the proper 1099 that reflects any foreign tax paid.

    5. You may also qualify for the Alternative Motor Vehicle Credit. The IRS has a list of vehicles eligible for this credit, which can be up to $3,400. Check to see if your state offers tax credits as well. Find the updated lists of qualified vehicles at www.irs.gov/newsroom/articles/0,,id=157632,00.html.

    6. There is still a child income tax credit of $1,000 for one child and $2,000 for two children. A taxpayer who has a dependent child under age 17 probably qualifies for the child tax credit. This credit in addition to the regular $3,650 exemption claimed for each dependent. Remember – the child tax credit is not the same as the child care credit. Many people are not aware that this tax credit is also deductible against the Alternative Minimum Tax! Unfortunately, the child tax credit still phases out when modified AGI reaches $75,000 for a single taxpayer and $110,000 for joint filers.

    You may also be eligible to receive other credits such as dependent care credits. Please see your tax preparer for details.

    Alternative Minimum Tax

    There is actually a second federal income tax system (yes, we groan with you as we struggle to understand even the first complicated tax system). The second system may raise your income taxes higher than they would otherwise be. In 1969, Congress created a second tax system – the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) – to ensure that higher-income earners with high amounts of itemized deductions pay at least the minimum amount of taxes on their income. The AMT restricts you from claiming certain deductions and requires you to increase your taxable income. So you must figure the tax you owe under the AMT system and under the other “normal” system and then pay whichever amount is higher.

    Taxpayers who face an Alternative Minimum Tax liability might be eligible for a Minimum Tax Credit (MTC). Ask your tax preparer if you have paid any AMT in the last few years—your credits may be refundable!

    In Summary

    As you can see there are many different strategies that can still be implemented in 2010 to reduce your 2009 tax liability. Unfortunately, all of this information can be overwhelming – that is an understatement!
    I hope that all these tax laws and changes do not confuse you. We believe that taking a proactive approach is better than a reactive approach – especially regarding income tax strategies! Do not pay any more taxes than you legally have to! We will keep you posted about the different tax law changes that take place throughout this year. Thank you for allowing us to help you with your finances.
    P.S. The upper incomes continue to bear a record share of the income tax burden. The top 1% of filers paid 40.4% of all federal income taxes, according to IRS data for 2007, the most recent year available. The highest 5% paid 60.6% of the total income tax. The bottom 50% of all filers paid only 2.9% of the total income tax bill. Their share is so low because Social Security taxes are not included in the figures and because many of these taxpayers get substantial tax relief from the earned income credit.

    Note: The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Comprehensive Asset Management & Servicing Inc., and should not be construed, directly or indirectly, as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Please note that statements made in this newsletter may be subject to change depending on any revisions to the tax code or any additional change in government policy.

    This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax, legal or investment planning advice. ¬We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

    Sources: Small Business Tax Strategies (January 2008, February 2008, March 2008, April 2008, August 2008, November 2008, November 2009, December 2009), Journal of Accountancy (January 2009), Investment News (1/7/08, 6/2/08, 1/19/09), On Wall Street Magazine (January 2009),Kiplinger Tax Letter (12/28/07, 2/22/08, 7/25/08, 8/8/08, 9/5/08, 10/3/08, 10/31/08, 12/23/08, 1/9/09, 8/7/09, 10/2/09), Steve Leimberg’s Newsletter (1/21/08, 11/3/08, 12/5/08, 1/15/09), Tax Hotline Magazine (January 2008, February 2008, March 2008, April 2008, May 2008, June 2008), Inc. Guidebook (Vol. 1 No.7), Kiplinger’s Personal Finance (March 2008, December 2009), Trust & Estates Magazine (November 2008, January 2009), J.K. Lasser’s Tax Letter (September 2007, February 2008), Senior Market Advisor Magazine (February 2008), Kiplinger’s Retirement Report (February 2008), Wealth Manager Magazine (December 2007, February 2008, September 2008), Wall Street Journal (1/9/08, 5/3-4/08, 8/6/08, 12/2/08, 12/3/08, 12/27-28/08,1/7/09, 1/8/0p, 9/3/09), Money Magazine (April 2008), Money Adviser Magazine (January 2008), National Underwriter Magazine (10/20/08, 12/1/08), Tax Savings Report (October 2008, November 2008, September 2009, October 2009), Business Week (November 2008), CCH Tax Briefing (7/30/08), Bottom Line Wealth Magazine (October 2008), Ed Slott’s IRA Advisor (January 2009, November 2009), Profitable Investing (September 2009), Forbes Magazine (3/16/09), Fortune Magazine (5/11/09)

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  • 08Mar

    Here is a recent article that we helped out with on CNBC that is now being used to help Tom Browkaw with his new series.

    http://www.boomercafe.com/2010/03/03/tom-brokaw-looks-at-baby-boomers/

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  • 17Feb

    We wanted to send everyone a note to discuss the impact on the NJ credit markets, specifically with regard to NJ municipal bonds, based upon Governor Chris Christie’s declaring a State of Emergency on Feb 11’th, due to the $2.2 billion budget gap. The declaration places a freeze on state spending, and includes major cuts in spending. Here is a summary of what is happening.

    Some of the cuts include $475 million in aid to more than 500 school districts, $32.7 million in NJ Transit subsidies, forgoing a $100 million pension payment for the current fiscal year, $62 million in aid to colleges and $12 million to hospital charity care. In addition, funding for the Department of the Public Advocate will be eliminated, and its functions will be folded into other parts of the government.

    As of December 2009, New Jersey was rated AA (stable outlook) by Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Aa3 (negative outlook) from Moody’s and AA- from Fitch (stable outlook). The negative outlook assigned by Moody’s reflected the state’s overall economic troubles brought on by the national recession, as well as a continued reliance on budget gimmicks and one-shot revenue sources. The $29 billion state budget that was approved in July 2009 raised taxes, depleted surplus funds, utilized federal stimulus money and restructured millions in debt to help offset record revenue losses brought on by the recession.

    As the Governor finalizes his plan to close the current budget gap as well as address the larger estimated $11 billion gap for fiscal 2011, more likely then not, the rating agencies will respond. In the near term, it is likely that the state will be put on “watch list negative” by the agencies, which is a ninety-day grace period during which the agencies request information from the entity, thereby entering into a dialog. After the grace period, the agencies will either confirm or downgrade the ratings; the outlook may also be assigned, which is for a longer twelve- to eighteen-month period. S&P and Moody’s have maintained their ratings for the past five and six years, respectively.

    New Jersey general-obligation debt continues to trade well in spite of the negative headlines. The difficulties of New Jersey’s fiscal health did not surface overnight; it has been an ongoing development. Yields on New Jersey’s 30-year debt have risen modestly from year end to 4.99% from 4.94%. Yields on the state’s 10-year debt have followed a similar path to 3.49%. The long end of the municipal market, including New Jersey, remains difficult and less liquid. We are generally not recommending any long term bonds at this time due to the low interest rate environment, and our concern that rising interest rates will cause a significant drop in all long term bonds, not just NJ muni’s.

    There is no doubt that New Jersey’s budget issues may present investment opportunities in the future. However, we remain cautious with state general-obligation debt until a clearer picture presents itself. At this time, we are not changing our viewpoint on NJ municipal bonds. We think that for now, every bond purchase, ether in NJ or anywhere, should be based upon the fundamentals of the bond issuer, and that care should be given in selecting these fixed income investments. They still make tremendous sense for high income earners, especially since federal tax rates are expected to increase next year.

    Since I would describe myself as a “Fiscal Conservative”, I am happy to see that someone is starting to say lets get a budget that works with the income we are bringing in. It doesn’t matter if you are a family, a business or a government, rule 1 must be bring in more money then you spend. Like everyone else, I have tremendous concerns on the impact that this will have at a local level, especially with property taxes that are already some of the highest in the nation. So as of right now, I like the concept, I just need to understand the details and as I find them, I will let you know.

    As always, if you have questions on this, or anything else, please feel free to contact me.

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